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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Gaozuloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaozu

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Paparazi · 8 games
63%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Paparazi · 5 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Dy · 5 games
80%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JT- · 4 games
75%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Dy · 4 games
50%
Underlord
Underlord
JT- · 4 games
75%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Ame · 3 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
XinQ · 3 games
67%

PARIVISION

Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 16 games
81%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
DM · 16 games
63%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 14 games
79%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Dukalis · 14 games
71%
Razor
Razorsignature
Crystallis · 14 games
71%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 13 games
69%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
DM · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
486 picks · 674 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
417 picks · 493 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
364 picks · 535 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
355 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
333 picks · 445 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
312 picks · 333 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
309 picks · 524 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
308 picks · 595 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:29
Gaozu 37%PARIVISION 63%
The model gave 63% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 37:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinAme
47% · 149 games47% · 222 games
TinyNo[o]ne
Tiny
Lina
LinaPaparazi
46% · 132 games55% · 39 games
SlarkCrystallis
Slark
Mars
MarsJT-
49% · 346 games50% · 164 games
PhoenixDM
Phoenix
Earthshaker
EarthshakerXinQ
59% · 61 game55% · 83 games
ChenDukalis
Chen
Abaddon
AbaddonDy
44% · 52 games51% · 232 games
Batrider9Class
Batrider
Game 2prediction correct23:39
Gaozu 41%PARIVISION 59%
The model gave 59% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 32:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordAme
52% · 54 games50% · 67 games
BristlebackDM
Bristleback
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritPaparazi
52% · 153 games48% · 70 games
Earth SpiritNo[o]ne
Earth Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaJT-
50% · 91 game47% · 13 games
Drow RangerCrystallis
Drow Ranger
Oracle
OracleXinQ
67% · 28 games52% · 24 games
UndyingDukalis
Undying
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiDy
53% · 51 game43% · 203 games
Batrider9Class
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 71%
Series resultPARIVISION 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2