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MESA Invitational 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 6 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Kyzko · 6 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Kyzko · 5 games
40%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Adzantick · 5 games
80%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Puppey · 5 games
60%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
423 · 4 games
25%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BOOM · 4 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Shad · 4 games
100%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 33 games
61%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 26 games
69%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 23 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 22 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 19 games
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 18 games
83%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
gotthejuice · 18 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Riddys · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
487 picks · 675 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
418 picks · 494 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
364 picks · 534 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
356 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
334 picks · 445 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
310 picks · 334 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
310 picks · 522 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
308 picks · 595 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 72%
Hero pool strength56% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total80% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:24
Team Secret 32%Natus Vincere Junior 68%
The model gave 68% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 38:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorblade423
50% · 118 games53% · 269 games
Morphlinggotthejuice
Morphling
Phoenix
PhoenixAinkrad
49% · 245 games53% · 128 games
Sand Kingpma
Sand King
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerseimei
43% · 104 games47% · 87 games
Queen of PainNiku
Queen of Pain
Batrider
BatriderPuppey
48% · 297 games51% · 230 games
LionZayac
Lion
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterKyzko
48% · 24 games58% · 74 games
Ogre MagiRiddys
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct21:47
Team Secret 31%Natus Vincere Junior 69%
The model gave 69% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 43:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorblade423
46% · 132 games57% · 203 games
PuckNiku
Puck
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAinkrad
46% · 224 games49% · 104 games
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Templar Assassin
Underlord
Underlordseimei
50% · 87 games51% · 112 games
Sand Kingpma
Sand King
Batrider
BatriderPuppey
46% · 330 games49% · 180 games
PhoenixZayac
Phoenix
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterKyzko
54% · 24 games55% · 198 games
LionRiddys
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 80%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2