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MESA Invitational 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The MongolZloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Q · 16 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Jabz · 15 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 14 games
36%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Q · 13 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Q · 13 games
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Q · 12 games
58%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Q · 12 games
42%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 11 games
45%

The MongolZ

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
489 picks · 673 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
417 picks · 492 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 535 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
354 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
336 picks · 446 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
309 picks · 509 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
306 picks · 596 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
304 picks · 330 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% The MongolZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:11
Aurora Gaming 51%The MongolZ 49%
The model gave 51% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 35:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingPalos
49% · 271 game50% · 324 games
PangolierJG
Pangolier
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAbed
45% · 122 games46% · 197 games
InvokerWonder'boy
Invoker
Magnus
MagnusJabz
59% · 152 games47% · 352 games
BatriderHishge
Batrider
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQ
53% · 280 games
Oracle
OracleOli
57% · 48 games
Game 2prediction correct20:28
Aurora Gaming 48%The MongolZ 52%
The model gave 52% on The MongolZ — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 49:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPalos
52% · 126 games48% · 257 games
PuckWonder'boy
Puck
Sniper
SniperAbed
45% · 81 game51% · 137 games
BrewmasterJG
Brewmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastJabz
50% · 177 games51% · 248 games
ClockwerkHishge
Clockwerk
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonQ
57% · 213 games
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiOli
44% · 45 games
Model check result
Model favoriteThe MongolZ · 51%
Accuracy by game2 of 2