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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Timado · 16 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Hellscream · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 13 games
46%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 13 games
62%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Skem · 12 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Yopaj · 11 games
64%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
mangekyou · 10 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Skem · 9 games
56%

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 44 games
68%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 34 games
85%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 32 games
72%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 29 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 25 games
56%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 24 games
79%
Razor
Razoroften banned
ATF · 24 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
489 picks · 673 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
416 picks · 492 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 534 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
351 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
336 picks · 446 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 504 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
305 picks · 595 bans
53%
Alchemist
Alchemist
303 picks · 655 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 69%
Hero pool strength59% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total87% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:22
Shopify Rebellion 27%Team Falcons 73%
The model gave 73% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 27:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerTimado
43% · 26 games48% · 157 games
MedusaSkiter
Medusa
Doom
Doommangekyou
55% · 296 games51% · 310 games
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
Dragon Knight
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritYopaj
52% · 147 games55% · 282 games
Centaur WarrunnerATF
Centaur Warrunner
Lion
LionHellscream
48% · 255 games53% · 72 games
Ogre MagiSneyking
Ogre Magi
Phoenix
PhoenixSkem
46% · 279 games45% · 182 games
MuertaCr1t-
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct12:33
Shopify Rebellion 26%Team Falcons 74%
The model gave 74% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 32:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmothermangekyou
44% · 43 games52% · 319 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Tiny
TinyYopaj
51% · 271 game56% · 155 games
MagnusATF
Magnus
Pugna
PugnaSkem
42% · 121 game52% · 33 games
ViperMalr1ne
Viper
Dark Willow
Dark WillowHellscream
50% · 159 games47% · 104 games
LinaCr1t-
Lina
Sven
SvenTimado
44% · 149 games58% · 132 games
Naga SirenSneyking
Naga Siren
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 87%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2