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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:1
AVULUSloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 42 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Larl · 29 games
62%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 26 games
81%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Miposhka · 25 games
48%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Malik · 24 games
71%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Larl · 22 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 22 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Miposhka · 22 games
55%

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 30 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 30 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 28 games
68%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 25 games
68%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 25 games
64%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 22 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 21 game
76%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Ekki · 21 game
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
489 picks · 673 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
416 picks · 492 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 534 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
351 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
336 picks · 446 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 504 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
305 picks · 595 bans
53%
Alchemist
Alchemist
303 picks · 655 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:29
Team Spirit 48%AVULUS 52%
The model gave 52% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 32:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritLarl
51% · 80 games46% · 63 games
DawnbreakerXibbe
Dawnbreaker
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSatanic
58% · 64 games54% · 83 games
SlarkSmiling Knight
Slark
Magnus
MagnusMalik
50% · 122 games47% · 162 games
InvokerStormstormer
Invoker
Batrider
Batriderrue
48% · 188 games51% · 129 games
PugnaSoNNeikO
Pugna
Lich
LichMiposhka
41% · 14 games47% · 31 game
Shadow ShamanEkki
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed33:12
Team Spirit 48%AVULUS 52%
The model gave 52% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 36:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperLarl
43% · 86 games50% · 178 games
Monkey KingSmiling Knight
Monkey King
Ursa
UrsaSatanic
43% · 104 games56% · 246 games
PuckStormstormer
Puck
Enigma
EnigmaMalik
56% · 114 games51% · 165 games
Dark SeerXibbe
Dark Seer
Batrider
Batriderrue
45% · 275 games54% · 86 games
Nyx AssassinEkki
Nyx Assassin
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMiposhka
47% · 230 games54% · 134 games
DisruptorSoNNeikO
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2