MESA Invitational 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AAnimeVestaloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Akashi · 17 games
Enchantressoften banned
Kuku · 16 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Kuku · 15 games
Phoenix
Ponyo · 13 games
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 13 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Ws · 11 games
Snipersignature
Jhocam · 11 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 11 games
AnimeVesta
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
489 picks · 673 bans
Clockwerk
416 picks · 492 bans
Pangolier
361 picks · 534 bans
Dark Willow
351 picks · 184 bans
Luna
336 picks · 446 bans
Dragon Knight
307 picks · 503 bans
Enchantress
305 picks · 595 bans
Alchemist
302 picks · 654 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:18
Talon Esports 92%AnimeVesta 8%
The model gave 92% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 35:22.
Game 2prediction correct32:14
Talon Esports 92%AnimeVesta 8%
The model gave 92% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 33:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 92%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2