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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
M80loss 0:2
series probability
9%91%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

M80

Snapfire
Snapfire
Elmisho · 24 games
25%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 21 game
57%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Elmisho · 20 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
MoOz · 15 games
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Elmisho · 15 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
MoOz · 15 games
33%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
Vitaly · 14 games
43%
Phoenix
Phoenix
MoOz · 14 games
29%

PARIVISION

Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 17 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
DM · 16 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 14 games
79%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 14 games
79%
Razor
Razorsignature
Crystallis · 14 games
71%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 13 games
69%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 12 games
42%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
DM · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
491 picks · 673 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
417 picks · 491 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
362 picks · 535 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
350 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
337 picks · 449 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
307 picks · 500 bans
53%
Enchantress
Enchantress
306 picks · 596 bans
53%
Alchemist
Alchemist
302 picks · 651 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:31
M80 24%PARIVISION 76%
The model gave 76% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 44:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorpayk
40% · 129 games47% · 256 games
GyrocopterCrystallis
Gyrocopter
Brewmaster
BrewmasterILICH-
55% · 112 games58% · 125 games
Monkey KingNo[o]ne
Monkey King
Phoenix
PhoenixMoOz
50% · 204 games54% · 45 games
TidehunterDM
Tidehunter
Dark Willow
Dark WillowElmisho
45% · 191 game47% · 149 games
Muerta9Class
Muerta
58% · 61 game
Ogre MagiDukalis
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct10:32
M80 24%PARIVISION 76%
The model gave 76% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 21:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterpayk
55% · 228 games45% · 108 games
SniperNo[o]ne
Sniper
Primal Beast
Primal BeastILICH-
48% · 206 games44% · 216 games
BeastmasterDM
Beastmaster
Monkey King
Monkey KingElmisho
54% · 127 games47% · 30 games
BloodseekerCrystallis
Bloodseeker
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenMoOz
49% · 210 games51% · 361 game
Batrider9Class
Batrider
56% · 56 games
Ogre MagiDukalis
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 91%
Series resultPARIVISION 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2