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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Gaozuloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 26 games
77%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Razor
Razorsignature
miCKe · 24 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
iNSaNiA · 22 games
59%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 22 games
68%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 22 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 20 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 19 games
74%

Gaozu

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Paparazi · 7 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Dy · 5 games
80%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JT- · 4 games
75%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Ame · 3 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
XinQ · 3 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
JT- · 3 games
67%
Muerta
Muerta
XinQ · 3 games
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
XinQ · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
490 picks · 674 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
415 picks · 490 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 533 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
350 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
338 picks · 450 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
306 picks · 494 bans
53%
Enchantress
Enchantress
305 picks · 596 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
303 picks · 327 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 78%
Hero pool strength50% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Gaozu
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:2
Team Liquid 46%Gaozu 54%
The model gave 54% on Gaozu — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 18:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
47% · 105 games48% · 129 games
MedusaAme
Medusa
Tiny
TinyNisha
49% · 251 game52% · 235 games
Storm SpiritPaparazi
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
47% · 186 games58% · 146 games
MagnusJT-
Magnus
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
46% · 172 games44% · 157 games
TechiesXinQ
Techies
Oracle
OracleiNSaNiA
59% · 15 games60% · 62 games
Ogre MagiDy
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct11:46
Team Liquid 45%Gaozu 55%
The model gave 55% on Gaozu — the game was taken by Gaozu in 32:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNisha
56% · 135 games51% · 101 game
Troll WarlordAme
Troll Warlord
Magnus
MagnusmiCKe
53% · 110 games52% · 34 games
HuskarPaparazi
Huskar
Visage
VisageSabeRLight-
46% · 50 games48% · 103 games
UnderlordJT-
Underlord
Enchantress
EnchantressiNSaNiA
49% · 171 game53% · 296 games
RubickXinQ
Rubick
Tusk
TuskBoxi
45% · 133 games48% · 65 games
Ogre MagiDy
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteGaozu · 62%
Accuracy by game1 of 2