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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
M80loss 1:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

M80

Snapfire
Snapfire
Elmisho · 24 games
25%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 21 game
57%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Elmisho · 20 games
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Elmisho · 15 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
MoOz · 15 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
MoOz · 14 games
43%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
Vitaly · 14 games
43%
Phoenix
Phoenix
MoOz · 14 games
29%

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 25 games
76%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
No!ob · 15 games
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
OmaR · 14 games
64%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Miracle- · 14 games
57%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 14 games
86%
Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 13 games
54%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Miracle- · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
490 picks · 674 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
415 picks · 490 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 533 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
350 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
338 picks · 450 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
306 picks · 494 bans
53%
Enchantress
Enchantress
305 picks · 596 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
303 picks · 327 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:22
M80 49%Nigma Galaxy 51%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by M80 in 41:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertapayk
52% · 158 games45% · 54 games
LinaSumaiL
Lina
Magnus
MagnusILICH-
58% · 146 games46% · 36 games
EarthshakerMiracle-
Earthshaker
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageElmisho
43% · 14 games56% · 64 games
DawnbreakerNo!ob
Dawnbreaker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMoOz
45% · 180 games49% · 175 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
51% · 169 games
LionOmaR
Lion
Game 2prediction correct14:38
M80 49%Nigma Galaxy 51%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 32:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertapayk
48% · 156 games53% · 290 games
Dragon KnightSumaiL
Dragon Knight
Beastmaster
BeastmasterILICH-
49% · 208 games63% · 36 games
ClinkzMiracle-
Clinkz
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterElmisho
45% · 291 game54% · 204 games
Primal BeastNo!ob
Primal Beast
Tusk
TuskMoOz
48% · 236 games47% · 72 games
Ogre MagiGH
Ogre Magi
51% · 289 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2