?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:1
AVULUSloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 44 games
68%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 34 games
85%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 31 game
71%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 29 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 25 games
56%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 24 games
79%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 23 games
83%

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 30 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 30 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 28 games
68%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 25 games
68%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 23 games
65%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 22 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 21 game
76%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Ekki · 21 game
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
491 picks · 673 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
415 picks · 490 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 533 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
349 picks · 183 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
340 picks · 451 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
305 picks · 491 bans
53%
Enchantress
Enchantress
305 picks · 595 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
303 picks · 325 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:18
Team Falcons 54%AVULUS 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 39:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
47% · 239 games48% · 174 games
UrsaSmiling Knight
Ursa
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
49% · 172 games51% · 172 games
Monkey KingStormstormer
Monkey King
Mars
MarsATF
51% · 207 games53% · 168 games
Dark SeerXibbe
Dark Seer
Lina
LinaCr1t-
40% · 103 games55% · 353 games
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
Shadow Demon
Phoenix
PhoenixSneyking
51% · 236 games53% · 90 games
Nyx AssassinEkki
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed30:26
Team Falcons 55%AVULUS 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by AVULUS in 55:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
48% · 160 games45% · 131 game
LinaStormstormer
Lina
Razor
RazorATF
44% · 125 games57% · 174 games
AlchemistSmiling Knight
Alchemist
Tiny
TinyMalr1ne
51% · 249 games51% · 159 games
Dark SeerXibbe
Dark Seer
Earthshaker
EarthshakerCr1t-
45% · 46 games54% · 260 games
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
Shadow Demon
Phoenix
PhoenixSneyking
50% · 211 games53% · 67 games
Nyx AssassinEkki
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 61%
Accuracy by game1 of 2