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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 20 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 16 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Yuragi · 15 games
60%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Nefrit · 14 games
79%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Sancity · 13 games
69%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Zayac · 13 games
38%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Zayac · 11 games
64%

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 41 game
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Larl · 29 games
62%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 26 games
81%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Miposhka · 25 games
48%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Malik · 24 games
71%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 22 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Miposhka · 22 games
55%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Larl · 21 game
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
491 picks · 673 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
415 picks · 490 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 533 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
349 picks · 183 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
340 picks · 451 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
305 picks · 491 bans
53%
Enchantress
Enchantress
305 picks · 595 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
303 picks · 325 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 49%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total76% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:26
Natus Vincere 37%Team Spirit 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 26:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerShad
49% · 14 games52% · 91 game
MedusaSatanic
Medusa
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSancity
52% · 70 games53% · 91 game
DawnbreakerMalik
Dawnbreaker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBOOM
46% · 127 games54% · 148 games
InvokerLarl
Invoker
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
41% · 155 games54% · 148 games
Muertarue
Muerta
Lion
LionQBFY
52% · 171 game49% · 59 games
Ogre MagiMiposhka
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct13:36
Natus Vincere 37%Team Spirit 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendShad
51% · 129 games51% · 172 games
AlchemistSatanic
Alchemist
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSancity
52% · 99 games45% · 92 games
LinaLarl
Lina
Mars
MarsBOOM
47% · 218 games49% · 45 games
TidehunterMalik
Tidehunter
Naga Siren
Naga SirenKaori
65% · 123 games44% · 142 games
Pugnarue
Pugna
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
52% · 186 games44% · 304 games
HoodwinkMiposhka
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 76%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2