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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 20 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 15 games
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Yuragi · 15 games
60%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Nefrit · 14 games
79%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Sancity · 13 games
69%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Zayac · 13 games
38%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 10 games
50%

Shopify Rebellion

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yopaj · 15 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 13 games
46%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Hellscream · 12 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yopaj · 12 games
58%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Skem · 11 games
45%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Yopaj · 11 games
64%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 10 games
50%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
mangekyou · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
490 picks · 673 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
415 picks · 490 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
359 picks · 529 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
348 picks · 183 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
340 picks · 451 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
305 picks · 593 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
303 picks · 488 bans
53%
Alchemist
Alchemist
300 picks · 634 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:25
Natus Vincere 46%Shopify Rebellion 54%
The model gave 54% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 30:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBOOM
55% · 120 games53% · 32 games
Lycanmangekyou
Lycan
Spectre
SpectreShad
50% · 18 games42% · 42 games
Drow RangerTimado
Drow Ranger
Tiny
TinySancity
48% · 164 games59% · 208 games
MagnusYopaj
Magnus
Batrider
BatriderKaori
44% · 181 game49% · 59 games
Ogre MagiSkem
Ogre Magi
Lion
LionQBFY
50% · 135 games47% · 277 games
Dark WillowHellscream
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct21:30
Natus Vincere 46%Shopify Rebellion 54%
The model gave 54% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 33:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackShad
54% · 138 games49% · 165 games
Dragon KnightTimado
Dragon Knight
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
46% · 97 games50% · 48 games
Broodmothermangekyou
Broodmother
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSancity
51% · 123 games48% · 142 games
TinyYopaj
Tiny
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinQBFY
56% · 94 games62% · 86 games
ChenSkem
Chen
Pugna
PugnaKaori
41% · 170 games41% · 181 game
BatriderHellscream
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 59%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2