European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Passion UAwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Dark Willow
jAMES · 12 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 10 games
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 9 games
Tuskoften banned
LeBronDota · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 7 games
Lion
Thiolicor · 7 games
Sand Kingoften banned
MikSa` · 7 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Stojkov · 7 games
Passion UA
Hoodwink
Fernans · 30 games
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 23 games
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 21 game
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 21 game
Timbersawsignature
Batyuk · 20 games
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 18 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 16 games
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
508 picks · 686 bans
Clockwerk
428 picks · 491 bans
Pangolier
370 picks · 534 bans
Luna
356 picks · 457 bans
Dark Willow
353 picks · 181 bans
Dragon Knight
330 picks · 492 bans
Enchantress
327 picks · 635 bans
Batrider
319 picks · 328 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:38
Zero Tenacity 44%Passion UA 56%
The model gave 56% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 34:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaStojkov
Templar Assassinyowaai
Sand KingNefrit
TimbersawBatyuk
GyrocopterDaaD-
Pangolierniche
AlchemistLeBronDota
Shadow DemonFernans
PugnajAMES
Tuskflacko
Game 2prediction missed42:21
Zero Tenacity 46%Passion UA 54%
The model gave 54% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 31:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerDaaD-
Templar Assassinyowaai
BristlebackNefrit
DoomBatyuk
Storm SpiritStojkov
Ember Spiritniche
ClockwerkLeBronDota
Tuskflacko
HoodwinkjAMES
LionFernans
Game 3prediction correct27:41
Zero Tenacity 44%Passion UA 56%
The model gave 56% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 42:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerDaaD-
BristlebackBatyuk
DawnbreakerNefrit
Tinyniche
Monkey KingStojkov
Spectreyowaai
Dark WillowjAMES
BatriderFernans
ClockwerkLeBronDota
Tuskflacko
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 61%
Series resultPassion UA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3