?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandasloss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Passion UAwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Weaver
Weaversignature
sayuw · 10 games
60%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Solo · 9 games
78%
Undying
Undying
Solo · 9 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 7 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
kiyotaka · 6 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 5 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 5 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 5 games
60%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 29 games
52%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 22 games
41%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 21 game
48%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 20 games
45%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 19 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 17 games
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 16 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 16 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
507 picks · 685 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
428 picks · 490 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
369 picks · 534 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
356 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
352 picks · 181 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
330 picks · 489 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
327 picks · 635 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
318 picks · 328 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% 9Pandas
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:15
9Pandas 50%Passion UA 50%
The model gave 50% on Passion UA — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 34:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistDarkLord^
51% · 243 games42% · 181 game
Terrorbladeyowaai
Terrorblade
Tiny
Tinyerase
54% · 406 games47% · 476 games
Pangolierniche
Pangolier
Tidehunter
Tidehunterlaise
53% · 93 games53% · 214 games
MagnusBatyuk
Magnus
Rubick
Rubickyamich
48% · 391 game49% · 421 game
BatriderFernans
Batrider
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSolo
49% · 323 games54% · 164 games
Pugnaflacko
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct14:34
9Pandas 48%Passion UA 52%
The model gave 52% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 42:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiriterase
45% · 210 games42% · 201 game
TimbersawBatyuk
Timbersaw
Monkey King
Monkey KingDarkLord^
53% · 168 games59% · 159 games
Magnusyowaai
Magnus
Tidehunter
Tidehunterlaise
55% · 66 games54% · 128 games
Sand Kingniche
Sand King
Chen
ChenSolo
50% · 135 games47% · 205 games
Phoenixflacko
Phoenix
Lion
Lionyamich
50% · 264 games47% · 150 games
Dark WillowFernans
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct38:40
9Pandas 47%Passion UA 53%
The model gave 53% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 42:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenDarkLord^
50% · 198 games44% · 230 games
Gyrocopteryowaai
Gyrocopter
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerlaise
48% · 111 games57% · 88 games
BristlebackBatyuk
Bristleback
Invoker
Invokererase
50% · 233 games49% · 117 games
Void Spiritniche
Void Spirit
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinyamich
59% · 92 games51% · 274 games
HoodwinkFernans
Hoodwink
Phoenix
PhoenixSolo
49% · 285 games45% · 210 games
Tuskflacko
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 57%
Series resultPassion UA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3