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European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dragon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lion
Riddys · 32 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 24 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 22 games
55%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 21 game
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
gotthejuice · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 18 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Riddys · 18 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 16 games
50%

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 29 games
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 22 games
59%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 22 games
36%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 21 game
48%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
lil pleb · 16 games
63%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
lil pleb · 16 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 15 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 14 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
507 picks · 685 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
428 picks · 490 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
369 picks · 534 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
356 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
352 picks · 181 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
330 picks · 488 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
327 picks · 635 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
317 picks · 328 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 61%
Hero pool strength58% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total71% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:15
Natus Vincere Junior 63%Dragon Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 32:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
47% · 212 games55% · 184 games
InvokerPanda
Invoker
Primal Beast
Primal Beastpma
48% · 162 games49% · 98 games
Ursalil pleb
Ursa
Puck
Pucktoshiyb
56% · 155 games52% · 101 game
DawnbreakerInfernal
Dawnbreaker
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiRiddys
48% · 74 games49% · 178 games
Muertaxsvampire
Muerta
Lion
LionDaze
48% · 204 games47% · 246 games
PhoenixMary_y
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct50:25
Natus Vincere Junior 61%Dragon Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 41:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassingotthejuice
51% · 164 games49% · 15 games
Spectrelil pleb
Spectre
Tiny
Tinytoshiyb
51% · 420 games44% · 109 games
LinaPanda
Lina
Doom
Doompma
49% · 277 games59% · 305 games
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanDaze
35% · 52 games48% · 262 games
Batriderxsvampire
Batrider
Lich
LichRiddys
53% · 31 game58% · 253 games
GyrocopterMary_y
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 71%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2