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BLAST Slam I · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:1
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spiritloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
KJ · 26 games
73%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 21 game
62%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Scofield · 21 game
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 19 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Scofield · 19 games
58%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Parker · 17 games
76%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 15 games
47%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
K1 · 14 games
71%

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 39 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Larl · 29 games
62%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 26 games
81%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Miposhka · 24 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Malik · 22 games
77%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Miposhka · 22 games
55%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Larl · 21 game
52%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
504 picks · 688 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
429 picks · 487 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 536 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
356 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
350 picks · 180 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
329 picks · 470 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
322 picks · 637 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
318 picks · 326 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Heroic
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total70% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:36
Heroic 39%Team Spirit 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 43:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistYuma
47% · 183 games42% · 124 games
Chaos KnightSatanic
Chaos Knight
Lina
Lina4nalog
43% · 84 games61% · 190 games
Monkey KingLarl
Monkey King
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDavai
45% · 181 game56% · 181 game
MagnusMalik
Magnus
Rubick
RubickScofield
48% · 287 games52% · 139 games
Pugnarue
Pugna
Clockwerk
ClockwerkKJ
53% · 248 games52% · 349 games
BatriderMiposhka
Batrider
Game 2prediction missed42:26
Heroic 40%Team Spirit 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Heroic in 55:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkYuma
56% · 81 game43% · 233 games
MorphlingSatanic
Morphling
Tiny
Tiny4nalog
47% · 360 games57% · 82 games
SniperLarl
Sniper
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDavai
46% · 262 games51% · 234 games
Primal BeastMalik
Primal Beast
Chen
ChenKJ
58% · 153 games45% · 351 game
Batriderrue
Batrider
Lion
LionScofield
56% · 280 games44% · 236 games
TuskMiposhka
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed42:29
Heroic 43%Team Spirit 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Heroic in 1:00:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusYuma
56% · 178 games43% · 106 games
TerrorbladeSatanic
Terrorblade
Huskar
Huskar4nalog
57% · 36 games50% · 99 games
SniperLarl
Sniper
Tidehunter
TidehunterDavai
61% · 66 games46% · 104 games
Earth SpiritMalik
Earth Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKJ
48% · 306 games44% · 295 games
BatriderMiposhka
Batrider
Clockwerk
ClockwerkScofield
53% · 245 games47% · 227 games
Lionrue
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 70%
Series resultHeroic 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3