BLAST Slam I · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Tundra Esportswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 39 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Larl · 29 games
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 26 games
Tuskoften banned
Miposhka · 24 games
Primal Beastsignature
Malik · 22 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Miposhka · 22 games
Invokeroften banned
Larl · 21 game
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 21 game
Tundra Esports
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 32 games
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 31 game
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 30 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 29 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 26 games
Doomsignature
33 · 24 games
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 24 games
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
502 picks · 688 bans
Clockwerk
430 picks · 487 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 539 bans
Luna
357 picks · 457 bans
Dark Willow
349 picks · 180 bans
Dragon Knight
332 picks · 471 bans
Enchantress
322 picks · 641 bans
Batrider
318 picks · 327 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:37
Team Spirit 47%Tundra Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 31:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MagnusSatanic
SvenNightfall
DawnbreakerMalik
TimbersawLorenof
Queen of PainLarl
Doom33
LichMiposhka
PugnaWhitemon
Dark Willowrue
RubickSaksa
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 57%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1