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BLAST Slam I · BO1
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 0:1
series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Falconswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
KJ · 26 games
73%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Scofield · 21 game
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 20 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 19 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Scofield · 19 games
58%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Parker · 17 games
76%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 15 games
47%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
K1 · 14 games
71%

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 43 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 32 games
84%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 30 games
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
71%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 26 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 25 games
56%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 23 games
78%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
501 picks · 688 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
430 picks · 486 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 539 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
357 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
349 picks · 180 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
332 picks · 470 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
322 picks · 640 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
318 picks · 325 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 69%
Hero pool strength55% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total89% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:31
Heroic 25%Team Falcons 75%
The model gave 75% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 36:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYuma
48% · 276 games44% · 104 games
LinaMalr1ne
Lina
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit4nalog
48% · 84 games49% · 33 games
Wraith KingSkiter
Wraith King
Doom
DoomDavai
56% · 227 games56% · 119 games
MagnusATF
Magnus
Muerta
MuertaScofield
46% · 129 games48% · 231 game
PhoenixSneyking
Phoenix
Undying
UndyingKJ
54% · 36 games51% · 265 games
Shadow DemonCr1t-
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 89%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1