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BLAST Slam I · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Liquidloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 32 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 31 game
61%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 30 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 29 games
76%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 25 games
60%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 24 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 24 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
75%

Team Liquid

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 25 games
80%
Razor
Razorsignature
miCKe · 23 games
70%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
iNSaNiA · 22 games
59%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 22 games
59%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 20 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
miCKe · 19 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
501 picks · 688 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
430 picks · 486 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 539 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
357 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
348 picks · 180 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
331 picks · 469 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
321 picks · 642 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
318 picks · 325 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total64% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:20
Tundra Esports 44%Team Liquid 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 38:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistNightfall
46% · 150 games53% · 138 games
Monkey KingmiCKe
Monkey King
Sniper
SniperLorenof
49% · 123 games47% · 112 games
LinaNisha
Lina
Tidehunter
Tidehunter33
55% · 55 games45% · 190 games
TimbersawSabeRLight-
Timbersaw
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
48% · 218 games56% · 135 games
Naga SireniNSaNiA
Naga Siren
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSaksa
56% · 244 games48% · 215 games
Dark WillowBoxi
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 64%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1