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BLAST Slam I · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 1:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 1:0
PARIVISIONloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 44 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 32 games
84%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 29 games
72%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 29 games
72%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 25 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 25 games
56%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 23 games
78%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 22 games
68%

PARIVISION

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
DM · 16 games
63%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 15 games
53%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 13 games
77%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 11 games
82%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
9Class · 11 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 11 games
45%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
DM · 11 games
55%
Razor
Razorsignature
Crystallis · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
501 picks · 687 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
429 picks · 486 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 541 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
357 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
348 picks · 180 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
330 picks · 467 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
321 picks · 642 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
316 picks · 324 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total81% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:18
Team Falcons 65%PARIVISION 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 52:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingSkiter
48% · 9 games56% · 96 games
Earth SpiritNo[o]ne
Earth Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
43% · 57 games61% · 25 games
Drow RangerCrystallis
Drow Ranger
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
47% · 46 games53% · 132 games
MagnusDM
Magnus
Phoenix
PhoenixSneyking
45% · 120 games48% · 140 games
Techies9Class
Techies
Rubick
RubickCr1t-
48% · 185 games58% · 24 games
LichPanto
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 81%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1