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BLAST Slam I · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:1
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Liquidwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 39 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Larl · 29 games
62%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 26 games
81%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Miposhka · 24 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Malik · 22 games
77%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Miposhka · 22 games
55%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Larl · 20 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 20 games
65%

Team Liquid

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 25 games
80%
Razor
Razorsignature
miCKe · 22 games
68%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
iNSaNiA · 21 game
57%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
67%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 21 game
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 20 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
miCKe · 19 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
501 picks · 687 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
428 picks · 486 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 541 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
357 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
348 picks · 179 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
330 picks · 466 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
321 picks · 642 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
316 picks · 323 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total65% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:29
Team Spirit 40%Team Liquid 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 43:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSatanic
46% · 185 games51% · 111 games
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
Dawnbreaker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMalik
45% · 199 games53% · 165 games
InvokerNisha
Invoker
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritLarl
54% · 158 games49% · 137 games
RazormiCKe
Razor
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterrue
46% · 238 games49% · 151 game
MuertaBoxi
Muerta
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiMiposhka
53% · 81 game56% · 297 games
ClockwerkiNSaNiA
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 65%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1