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European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 28 games
50%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 22 games
41%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 21 game
43%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 20 games
45%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 19 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 17 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 17 games
59%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 16 games
25%

Level UP

Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 12 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
SsaSpartan · 10 games
30%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 9 games
33%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Focus · 9 games
44%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SsaSpartan · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
SsaSpartan · 9 games
44%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
MaTson · 8 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
499 picks · 683 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
427 picks · 482 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 543 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
357 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
348 picks · 179 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
327 picks · 463 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
320 picks · 643 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
313 picks · 320 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 42%
Hero pool strength50% Level UP
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total56% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:21
Passion UA 53%Level UP 47%
The model gave 53% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 38:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightyowaai
49% · 204 games55% · 300 games
AlchemistFocus
Alchemist
Timbersaw
TimbersawBatyuk
45% · 139 games40% · 12 games
RikiMaTson
Riki
Puck
Puckniche
52% · 151 game49% · 75 games
UndyingSsaSpartan
Undying
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFernans
47% · 209 games49% · 451 game
RubickJeezy
Rubick
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonflacko
53% · 135 games
Game 2prediction correct35:20
Passion UA 54%Level UP 46%
The model gave 54% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 29:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingyowaai
51% · 207 games55% · 34 games
Drow RangerFocus
Drow Ranger
Void Spirit
Void Spiritniche
47% · 76 games56% · 71 game
Queen of PainMaTson
Queen of Pain
Doom
DoomBatyuk
49% · 151 game47% · 267 games
RubickJeezy
Rubick
Snapfire
SnapfireFernans
49% · 218 games49% · 310 games
PhoenixSsaSpartan
Phoenix
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magiflacko
48% · 30 games
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 56%
Series resultPassion UA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2