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EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
Ilbirs eSportsloss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ilbirs eSports

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ponlo · 17 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 11 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 10 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
niche · 10 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 9 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Kami · 8 games
75%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Nefrit · 8 games
25%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
niche · 8 games
50%

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dEsire · 38 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 31 game
71%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
MoOz · 28 games
46%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Kami · 23 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
MoOz · 20 games
70%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 20 games
60%
Largo
Largooften banned
Nefrit · 19 games
53%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Kami · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
498 picks · 355 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
356 picks · 645 bans
54%
Bane
Bane
346 picks · 392 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
334 picks · 188 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
318 picks · 451 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
316 picks · 343 bans
50%
Windranger
Windranger
301 picks · 231 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
300 picks · 328 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total73% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:33
Ilbirs eSports 37%Zero Tenacity 63%
The model gave 63% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 48:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
Necrophos423
49% · 60 games55% · 61 game
Clinkznesfeer
Clinkz
Slark
Slarkniche
56% · 58 games52% · 254 games
Ember SpiritDifference
Ember Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordNorma
49% · 244 games52% · 17 games
Death ProphetMikSa`
Death Prophet
Undying
UndyingPonlo
47% · 125 games54% · 71 game
Miranamrls
Mirana
Dark Willow
Dark WillowFernans
40% · 204 games50% · 288 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct12:30
Ilbirs eSports 37%Zero Tenacity 63%
The model gave 63% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 28:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend423
49% · 406 games51% · 152 games
Terrorbladenesfeer
Terrorblade
Leshrac
Leshracniche
55% · 276 games44% · 255 games
Centaur WarrunnerMikSa`
Centaur Warrunner
Largo
LargoNorma
56% · 285 games42% · 304 games
Storm SpiritDifference
Storm Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerFernans
51% · 432 games53% · 455 games
Hoodwinkmrls
Hoodwink
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernPonlo
50% · 113 games47% · 346 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 73%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2