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European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandasloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Dragon Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Solo · 10 games
70%
Weaver
Weaversignature
sayuw · 10 games
60%
Undying
Undying
Solo · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 6 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
kiyotaka · 6 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
sayuw · 5 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 5 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DarkLord^ · 5 games
60%

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 28 games
54%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 23 games
35%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 22 games
59%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 21 game
48%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
paw · 17 games
65%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
lil pleb · 16 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 15 games
53%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
500 picks · 683 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
426 picks · 483 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
371 picks · 544 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
357 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
345 picks · 179 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
326 picks · 462 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
320 picks · 645 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
313 picks · 321 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% 9Pandas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:47
9Pandas 54%Dragon Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 45:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaDarkLord^
43% · 201 game56% · 236 games
DoomInfernal
Doom
Void Spirit
Void Spiriterase
49% · 153 games49% · 183 games
Invokerdualrazee
Invoker
Pangolier
Pangolierlaise
50% · 446 games55% · 137 games
Weaverlil pleb
Weaver
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSolo
55% · 63 games51% · 211 games
Dark Willowxsvampire
Dark Willow
Muerta
Muertayamich
45% · 169 games48% · 265 games
ClockwerkMary_y
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct39:12
9Pandas 53%Dragon Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 30:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistDarkLord^
58% · 257 games55% · 293 games
Dragon Knightlil pleb
Dragon Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiriterase
55% · 302 games44% · 343 games
Pangolierdualrazee
Pangolier
Sand King
Sand Kinglaise
54% · 215 games44% · 184 games
MarsInfernal
Mars
Undying
UndyingSolo
49% · 88 games56% · 19 games
WarlockMary_y
Warlock
Dark Willow
Dark Willowyamich
45% · 260 games46% · 283 games
Hoodwinkxsvampire
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction missed23:35
9Pandas 50%Dragon Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 43:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinyerase
54% · 297 games52% · 442 games
Dragon Knightlil pleb
Dragon Knight
Morphling
MorphlingDarkLord^
42% · 228 games51% · 311 games
Puckdualrazee
Puck
Sand King
Sand Kinglaise
53% · 116 games47% · 79 games
TidehunterInfernal
Tidehunter
Dark Willow
Dark Willowyamich
51% · 195 games48% · 206 games
Muertaxsvampire
Muerta
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSolo
53% · 234 games53% · 32 games
Ancient ApparitionMary_y
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 53%
Series resultDragon Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3