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CCT Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 30 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 23 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 22 games
55%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 22 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Riddys · 19 games
53%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Niku · 17 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 17 games
47%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 16 games
94%

1w Team

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 31 game
52%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Munkushi~ · 29 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 27 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 26 games
69%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
RESPECT · 26 games
62%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
swedenstrong · 26 games
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
RESPECT · 22 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
500 picks · 682 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
424 picks · 484 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
371 picks · 544 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
357 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
346 picks · 178 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
331 picks · 453 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
323 picks · 649 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
315 picks · 324 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total66% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:38
Natus Vincere Junior 40%1w Team 60%
The model gave 60% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 55:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlinggotthejuice
39% · 180 games45% · 34 games
Drow RangerMunkushi~
Drow Ranger
Beastmaster
Beastmasterpma
46% · 141 game58% · 132 games
Monkey KingSquad1x
Monkey King
Timbersaw
TimbersawNiku
45% · 161 game59% · 133 games
EnigmaCloud
Enigma
Bane
BaneDaze
48% · 36 games54% · 144 games
PugnaRESPECT
Pugna
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiRiddys
52% · 38 games55% · 113 games
Marciswedenstrong
Marci
Game 2prediction correct28:32
Natus Vincere Junior 42%1w Team 58%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 40:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
Underlordpma
52% · 101 game43% · 119 games
Nature's ProphetMunkushi~
Nature's Prophet
Monkey King
Monkey Kinggotthejuice
53% · 166 games45% · 104 games
Queen of PainSquad1x
Queen of Pain
Pangolier
PangolierNiku
53% · 332 games50% · 247 games
MarsCloud
Mars
Lion
LionDaze
54% · 277 games48% · 311 games
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
Lich
LichRiddys
55% · 28 games48% · 123 games
Naga SirenRESPECT
Naga Siren
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 66%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2