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European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandaswin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Solo · 10 games
70%
Weaver
Weaversignature
sayuw · 10 games
60%
Undying
Undying
Solo · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 6 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
kiyotaka · 6 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 5 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DarkLord^ · 5 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Alberkaaa · 4 games
75%

Zero Tenacity

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 9 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 7 games
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 7 games
57%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
MikSa` · 7 games
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 6 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Stojkov · 6 games
67%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
LeBronDota · 6 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
499 picks · 682 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
424 picks · 482 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
369 picks · 544 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
357 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
344 picks · 178 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
331 picks · 451 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
323 picks · 649 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
315 picks · 324 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% 9Pandas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:20
9Pandas 54%Zero Tenacity 46%
The model gave 54% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 36:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingDarkLord^
47% · 385 games53% · 185 games
AlchemistDaaD-
Alchemist
Timbersaw
Timbersawlaise
50% · 327 games49% · 254 games
PuckStojkov
Puck
Earthshaker
Earthshakererase
51% · 88 games48% · 377 games
PangolierMikSa`
Pangolier
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSolo
50% · 106 games49% · 299 games
GyrocopterLeBronDota
Gyrocopter
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonyamich
56% · 433 games47% · 224 games
Dark WillowjAMES
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct39:14
9Pandas 54%Zero Tenacity 46%
The model gave 54% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 33:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaDarkLord^
48% · 137 games49% · 365 games
GyrocopterDaaD-
Gyrocopter
Tiny
Tinyerase
52% · 366 games47% · 117 games
LinaStojkov
Lina
Pangolier
Pangolierlaise
49% · 444 games46% · 260 games
BeastmasterMikSa`
Beastmaster
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSolo
49% · 118 games54% · 295 games
LionjAMES
Lion
Dark Willow
Dark Willowyamich
51% · 292 games54% · 320 games
TuskLeBronDota
Tusk
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 57%
Series result9Pandas 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2