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European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 30 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 22 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 22 games
55%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 22 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Riddys · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 17 games
47%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
gotthejuice · 16 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 16 games
94%

Level UP

Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 12 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
SsaSpartan · 9 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 9 games
33%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Focus · 9 games
44%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
SsaSpartan · 9 games
44%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
MaTson · 8 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 8 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SsaSpartan · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
501 picks · 680 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
426 picks · 481 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 547 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
358 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
345 picks · 178 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
331 picks · 451 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
323 picks · 655 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
315 picks · 324 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 43%
Hero pool strength59% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total72% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:30
Natus Vincere Junior 63%Level UP 37%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 37:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
48% · 329 games46% · 254 games
AlchemistFocus
Alchemist
Monkey King
Monkey KingNiku
60% · 164 games48% · 277 games
Storm SpiritMaTson
Storm Spirit
Magnus
Magnuspma
55% · 117 games45% · 298 games
SnapfireJeezy
Snapfire
Phoenix
PhoenixRiddys
48% · 313 games52% · 357 games
ClockwerkSsaSpartan
Clockwerk
Batrider
BatriderDaze
49% · 263 games
Game 2prediction correct36:14
Natus Vincere Junior 64%Level UP 36%
The model gave 64% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 30:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
50% · 299 games47% · 331 game
MorphlingFocus
Morphling
Broodmother
Broodmotherpma
54% · 93 games48% · 464 games
PangolierMaTson
Pangolier
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNiku
56% · 307 games46% · 267 games
PhoenixSsaSpartan
Phoenix
Marci
MarciDaze
56% · 178 games44% · 138 games
PugnaJeezy
Pugna
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonRiddys
53% · 323 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 72%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2