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European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nightshadeloss 0:2
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nightshade

Snapfire
Snapfire
waveformn · 5 games
40%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Kyzko · 4 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Kyzko · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ri4man · 3 games
0%
Jakiro
Jakiro
jmn- · 3 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ChodΣX · 3 games
33%
Marci
Marci
ChodΣX · 3 games
33%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
ChodΣX · 2 games
0%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 30 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 22 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 21 game
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 20 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Riddys · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 17 games
47%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
gotthejuice · 16 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
501 picks · 681 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
425 picks · 480 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
366 picks · 547 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
358 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
339 picks · 177 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
332 picks · 446 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
325 picks · 659 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
316 picks · 326 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 68%
Hero pool strength63% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Nightshade 13%Natus Vincere Junior 87%
The model gave 87% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior.
Game 2prediction correct
Nightshade 13%Natus Vincere Junior 87%
The model gave 87% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 87%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2