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CCT Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 27 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 22 games
36%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 20 games
60%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 20 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
paw · 16 games
63%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
lil pleb · 14 games
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
lil pleb · 14 games
36%
Mars
Marssignature
Infernal · 13 games
62%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lion
Riddys · 29 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 22 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 21 game
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 19 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Riddys · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 17 games
47%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
gotthejuice · 16 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
499 picks · 681 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
425 picks · 477 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
366 picks · 546 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
358 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
339 picks · 177 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
332 picks · 442 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
325 picks · 657 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
316 picks · 324 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total80% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:37
Dragon Esports 31%Natus Vincere Junior 69%
The model gave 69% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 38:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlinglil pleb
44% · 260 games53% · 283 games
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
Gyrocopter
Lina
Linadualrazee
44% · 110 games52% · 247 games
Timbersawpma
Timbersaw
Mars
MarsInfernal
47% · 242 games56% · 162 games
Sand KingNiku
Sand King
Phoenix
PhoenixMary_y
52% · 228 games55% · 45 games
Ogre MagiRiddys
Ogre Magi
Muerta
Muertaxsvampire
44% · 163 games53% · 266 games
LionDaze
Lion
Game 2prediction correct25:20
Dragon Esports 32%Natus Vincere Junior 68%
The model gave 68% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 43:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusalil pleb
43% · 129 games44% · 291 game
Morphlinggotthejuice
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritdualrazee
45% · 173 games52% · 151 game
Dark Seerpma
Dark Seer
Beastmaster
BeastmasterInfernal
49% · 204 games58% · 173 games
Sand KingNiku
Sand King
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkxsvampire
53% · 293 games47% · 59 games
Ogre MagiRiddys
Ogre Magi
Pugna
PugnaMary_y
54% · 127 games53% · 252 games
Dark WillowDaze
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 80%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2