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European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandasloss 1:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Level UPwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Weaver
Weaversignature
sayuw · 10 games
60%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Solo · 9 games
67%
Undying
Undying
Solo · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 6 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
kiyotaka · 5 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Alberkaaa · 4 games
75%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
DarkLord^ · 4 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 4 games
50%

Level UP

Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 11 games
36%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 9 games
33%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Focus · 9 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
SsaSpartan · 8 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 8 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SsaSpartan · 7 games
71%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
ififall · 6 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wuiter · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
496 picks · 680 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
424 picks · 475 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
366 picks · 545 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
358 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
338 picks · 177 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
330 picks · 438 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
325 picks · 657 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
317 picks · 322 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% 9Pandas
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:43
9Pandas 56%Level UP 44%
The model gave 56% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by Level UP in 49:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightDarkLord^
54% · 242 games50% · 233 games
AlchemistFocus
Alchemist
Bristleback
Bristlebacklaise
53% · 97 games49% · 64 games
HuskarMaTson
Huskar
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiriterase
49% · 145 games43% · 165 games
PugnaJeezy
Pugna
Batrider
BatriderSolo
49% · 204 games50% · 319 games
ClockwerkSsaSpartan
Clockwerk
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirityamich
56% · 93 games
Game 2prediction correct34:12
9Pandas 58%Level UP 42%
The model gave 58% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 29:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterDarkLord^
46% · 181 game47% · 189 games
Templar AssassinFocus
Templar Assassin
Terrorblade
Terrorbladelaise
47% · 87 games53% · 152 games
InvokerMaTson
Invoker
Puck
Puckerase
47% · 192 games60% · 131 game
PugnaJeezy
Pugna
Lion
Lionyamich
52% · 198 games42% · 253 games
TuskSsaSpartan
Tusk
Elder Titan
Elder TitanSolo
58% · 67 games
Game 3prediction missed24:41
9Pandas 54%Level UP 46%
The model gave 54% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by Level UP in 42:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightDarkLord^
45% · 258 games56% · 206 games
AlchemistFocus
Alchemist
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiriterase
51% · 186 games56% · 62 games
EarthshakerMaTson
Earthshaker
Bristleback
Bristlebacklaise
50% · 115 games49% · 280 games
PhoenixJeezy
Phoenix
Marci
Marciyamich
44% · 131 game49% · 276 games
TuskSsaSpartan
Tusk
Pugna
PugnaSolo
49% · 134 games
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 59%
Series resultLevel UP 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3