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European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 22 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 21 game
52%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 20 games
55%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 19 games
68%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 16 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
WoE · 16 games
56%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SSS · 16 games
63%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
SSS · 15 games
60%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lion
Riddys · 29 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 21 game
62%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 21 game
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 17 games
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Riddys · 17 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 15 games
53%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Niku · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
495 picks · 680 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
423 picks · 474 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
364 picks · 543 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
358 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
336 picks · 176 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
329 picks · 433 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
325 picks · 654 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
314 picks · 321 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total57% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:39
One Move 45%Natus Vincere Junior 55%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 43:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenWoE
48% · 231 game52% · 168 games
Monkey Kinggotthejuice
Monkey King
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSSS
44% · 57 games52% · 324 games
Primal Beastpma
Primal Beast
Pangolier
PangolierDifference
46% · 541 game58% · 376 games
TinyNiku
Tiny
Batrider
BatriderRein
51% · 400 games46% · 297 games
Shadow DemonDaze
Shadow Demon
Terrorblade
Terrorbladenot me
48% · 132 games55% · 196 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct18:25
One Move 46%Natus Vincere Junior 54%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 40:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawSSS
54% · 327 games45% · 307 games
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
Dragon Knight
Alchemist
AlchemistWoE
54% · 269 games54% · 136 games
Magnuspma
Magnus
Monkey King
Monkey KingDifference
49% · 200 games50% · 268 games
TinyNiku
Tiny
Chen
ChenRein
60% · 179 games40% · 306 games
HoodwinkDaze
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark Willownot me
49% · 277 games46% · 235 games
PhoenixRiddys
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 57%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2