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1win Series Dota 2 Fall · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 0:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
DM · 16 games
63%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 15 games
53%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 12 games
75%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
9Class · 11 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 11 games
45%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
DM · 11 games
55%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 10 games
90%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 10 games
80%

Gaimin Gladiators

Underlord
Underlord
Ace · 22 games
55%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Ace · 20 games
65%
Chen
Chensignature
Seleri · 20 games
65%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 18 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Quinn · 17 games
76%
Muerta
Muerta
tOfu · 16 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
36%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
dyrachyo · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
495 picks · 680 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
423 picks · 474 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
364 picks · 543 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
358 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
336 picks · 176 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
329 picks · 433 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
325 picks · 654 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
314 picks · 321 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 42%
Hero pool strength53% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:27
PARIVISION 53%Gaimin Gladiators 47%
The model gave 53% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 34:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerNo[o]ne
50% · 149 games52% · 197 games
PuckQuinn
Puck
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDM
47% · 190 games47% · 33 games
Drow RangerWatson
Drow Ranger
Bristleback
BristlebackCrystallis
49% · 135 games51% · 226 games
Primal BeastAce
Primal Beast
Morphling
Morphling9Class
48% · 296 games55% · 117 games
MuertatOfu
Muerta
Disruptor
DisruptorDukalis
54% · 121 game47% · 318 games
BatriderSeleri
Batrider
Game 2prediction missed16:29
PARIVISION 53%Gaimin Gladiators 47%
The model gave 53% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 46:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
56% · 197 games53% · 150 games
MiranaWatson
Mirana
Razor
RazorCrystallis
45% · 185 games47% · 151 game
Earth SpiritQuinn
Earth Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixDM
50% · 206 games48% · 235 games
DoomAce
Doom
Chen
ChenDukalis
56% · 125 games48% · 272 games
GyrocoptertOfu
Gyrocopter
Tusk
Tusk9Class
46% · 260 games52% · 165 games
PugnaSeleri
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 52%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2