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CCT Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 0:2
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Dragon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 30 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Munkushi~ · 29 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 26 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 26 games
65%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
RESPECT · 25 games
64%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
swedenstrong · 25 games
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
RESPECT · 21 game
52%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 21 game
62%

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 26 games
54%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 21 game
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 20 games
60%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 20 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
paw · 16 games
63%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
lil pleb · 14 games
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
lil pleb · 14 games
36%
Puck
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 13 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
495 picks · 675 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
422 picks · 475 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 541 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
359 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
336 picks · 176 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
331 picks · 427 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
323 picks · 655 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
312 picks · 318 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:37
1w Team 74%Dragon Esports 26%
The model gave 74% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 59:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMunkushi~
42% · 155 games54% · 29 games
Spectrelil pleb
Spectre
Tiny
Tinyxn丶e
50% · 214 games59% · 306 games
Storm Spiritdualrazee
Storm Spirit
Doom
DoomCloud
51% · 119 games55% · 88 games
DawnbreakerInfernal
Dawnbreaker
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
47% · 211 games49% · 109 games
Nyx Assassinxsvampire
Nyx Assassin
Clockwerk
ClockwerkRESPECT
45% · 191 game50% · 358 games
PhoenixMary_y
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed19:41
1w Team 74%Dragon Esports 26%
The model gave 74% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 43:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMunkushi~
51% · 146 games53% · 155 games
Faceless Voidlil pleb
Faceless Void
Mars
MarsCloud
50% · 410 games50% · 368 games
Pangolierdualrazee
Pangolier
Monkey King
Monkey Kingxn丶e
48% · 193 games49% · 354 games
Hoodwinkxsvampire
Hoodwink
Muerta
Muertaswedenstrong
46% · 165 games58% · 132 games
MagnusInfernal
Magnus
Enchantress
EnchantressRESPECT
51% · 359 games46% · 264 games
PhoenixMary_y
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 89%
Series resultDragon Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2