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European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 22 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 19 games
37%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 18 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 17 games
59%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 16 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 14 games
36%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 14 games
21%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 14 games
50%

Level UP

Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 11 games
36%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 9 games
33%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Focus · 9 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
SsaSpartan · 8 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 8 games
38%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
ififall · 6 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wuiter · 6 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
ififall · 6 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
494 picks · 675 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
422 picks · 475 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 541 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
359 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
337 picks · 176 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
329 picks · 428 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
323 picks · 655 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
311 picks · 319 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Passion UA
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:4
Passion UA 47%Level UP 53%
The model gave 53% on Level UP — the game was taken by Passion UA in 22:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeyowaai
56% · 86 games55% · 327 games
Dragon KnightFocus
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand KingBatyuk
42% · 104 games47% · 99 games
Queen of PainMaTson
Queen of Pain
Invoker
Invokerniche
55% · 56 games60% · 107 games
Nyx AssassinJeezy
Nyx Assassin
Batrider
BatriderFernans
42% · 158 games
Tusk
Tuskflacko
38% · 129 games
Game 2prediction missed33:11
Passion UA 50%Level UP 50%
The model gave 50% on Level UP — the game was taken by Passion UA in 20:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistyowaai
53% · 141 game51% · 375 games
Dragon KnightFocus
Dragon Knight
Bristleback
BristlebackBatyuk
58% · 64 games48% · 109 games
Queen of PainMaTson
Queen of Pain
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritniche
51% · 142 games45% · 292 games
PhoenixJeezy
Phoenix
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFernans
49% · 212 games
Enchantress
Enchantressflacko
50% · 217 games
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 52%
Series resultPassion UA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2