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CCT Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
DMSloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 22 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 21 game
52%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 18 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 18 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 16 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
WoE · 15 games
53%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 15 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 15 games
27%

DMS

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
prblms · 21 game
52%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Hduo · 16 games
56%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Shigetsu · 14 games
57%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 13 games
77%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Daxak · 12 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hduo · 11 games
55%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
mellojul · 11 games
55%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
prblms · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
492 picks · 675 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
422 picks · 475 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
359 picks · 457 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
358 picks · 541 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
336 picks · 176 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
328 picks · 425 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
322 picks · 653 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
308 picks · 318 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% One Move
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total66% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:38
One Move 57%DMS 43%
The model gave 57% on One Move — the game was taken by DMS in 1:12:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudge
PudgeWoE
53% · 50 games49% · 100 games
MedusaShigetsu
Medusa
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSSS
51% · 91 game51% · 244 games
Pangoliermellojul
Pangolier
Naga Siren
Naga SirenRein
55% · 133 games44% · 139 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Invoker
InvokerDifference
52% · 183 games46% · 195 games
Hoodwinkprblms
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark Willownot me
48% · 269 games55% · 48 games
Ogre MagiHduo
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct17:8
One Move 60%DMS 40%
The model gave 60% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 27:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightWoE
48% · 340 games52% · 379 games
GyrocopterShigetsu
Gyrocopter
Pangolier
PangolierDifference
46% · 359 games47% · 166 games
TerrorbladeNefrit
Terrorblade
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSSS
54% · 32 games50% · 295 games
Puckmellojul
Puck
Chen
ChenRein
60% · 107 games43% · 310 games
Lionprblms
Lion
Batrider
Batridernot me
52% · 343 games47% · 31 game
AbaddonHduo
Abaddon
Game 3prediction correct
One Move 66%DMS 34%
The model gave 66% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 66%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3