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CCT Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 1:2
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Passion UAwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 27 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 25 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 24 games
75%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 21 game
67%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 20 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 20 games
65%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 19 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 19 games
74%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 20 games
45%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 19 games
37%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 17 games
59%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 17 games
35%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 16 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 14 games
36%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 14 games
21%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
flacko · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
490 picks · 671 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
420 picks · 473 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
359 picks · 457 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
358 picks · 538 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
336 picks · 176 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
328 picks · 418 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
322 picks · 655 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
305 picks · 316 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 47%
Hero pool strength64% AVULUS
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total88% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:15
AVULUS 77%Passion UA 23%
The model gave 77% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 30:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackSmiling Knight
53% · 150 games45% · 266 games
Morphlingyowaai
Morphling
Puck
PuckStormstormer
48% · 216 games54% · 68 games
BroodmotherBatyuk
Broodmother
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerXibbe
47% · 79 games52% · 139 games
Invokerniche
Invoker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
50% · 276 games50% · 157 games
MuertaFernans
Muerta
Lion
LionEkki
56% · 220 games48% · 311 games
Tuskflacko
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed39:48
AVULUS 74%Passion UA 26%
The model gave 74% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Passion UA in 49:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherSmiling Knight
55% · 73 games45% · 12 games
Drow Rangeryowaai
Drow Ranger
Earthshaker
EarthshakerStormstormer
48% · 44 games50% · 75 games
VisageBatyuk
Visage
Phoenix
PhoenixSoNNeikO
46% · 177 games47% · 256 games
Puckniche
Puck
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXibbe
56% · 215 games51% · 343 games
HoodwinkFernans
Hoodwink
Batrider
BatriderEkki
49% · 280 games50% · 103 games
Bristlebackflacko
Bristleback
Game 3prediction missed17:34
AVULUS 74%Passion UA 26%
The model gave 74% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Passion UA in 38:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSmiling Knight
50% · 160 games50% · 156 games
Alchemistyowaai
Alchemist
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerXibbe
47% · 88 games47% · 101 game
Void Spiritniche
Void Spirit
Invoker
InvokerStormstormer
47% · 199 games58% · 108 games
BristlebackBatyuk
Bristleback
Batrider
BatriderEkki
51% · 334 games51% · 223 games
LionFernans
Lion
Elder Titan
Elder TitanSoNNeikO
50% · 80 games48% · 273 games
Hoodwinkflacko
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 88%
Series resultPassion UA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3