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CCT Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 30 games
50%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
bengan · 30 games
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
Force · 26 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Force · 25 games
48%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Force · 24 games
29%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
NARMAN · 24 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 23 games
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 22 games
55%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lion
Riddys · 27 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 21 game
62%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 21 game
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 17 games
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Riddys · 16 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 15 games
53%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Niku · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
490 picks · 670 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
421 picks · 472 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
359 picks · 457 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
359 picks · 539 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
334 picks · 176 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
328 picks · 417 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
323 picks · 654 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
306 picks · 316 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 66%
Hero pool strength55% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total51% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:38
MOUZ 48%Natus Vincere Junior 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 37:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingUlnit
43% · 217 games51% · 149 games
Medusagotthejuice
Medusa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSupream^
50% · 163 games47% · 144 games
Sand Kingpma
Sand King
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageForce
52% · 59 games48% · 186 games
PuckNiku
Puck
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiTobi
55% · 42 games49% · 27 games
Ancient ApparitionRiddys
Ancient Apparition
Dark Willow
Dark WillowImmersion
50% · 199 games56% · 174 games
LionDaze
Lion
Game 2prediction missed44:37
MOUZ 50%Natus Vincere Junior 50%
The model gave 50% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by MOUZ in 48:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightUlnit
46% · 253 games52% · 47 games
MeepoYuma
Meepo
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSupream^
49% · 88 games52% · 150 games
Bristlebackpma
Bristleback
Dazzle
DazzleForce
44% · 26 games55% · 83 games
ViperNiku
Viper
Enchantress
EnchantressTobi
49% · 241 game54% · 237 games
LionDaze
Lion
Clockwerk
ClockwerkImmersion
44% · 191 game55% · 282 games
Shadow DemonRiddys
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct19:55
MOUZ 47%Natus Vincere Junior 53%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 41:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeUlnit
46% · 167 games54% · 264 games
TinyNiku
Tiny
Mars
MarsForce
44% · 278 games49% · 143 games
RazorYuma
Razor
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSupream^
53% · 86 games52% · 124 games
Magnuspma
Magnus
Dark Willow
Dark WillowImmersion
50% · 206 games48% · 194 games
GyrocopterDaze
Gyrocopter
Lich
LichTobi
56% · 36 games50% · 48 games
Ogre MagiRiddys
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 51%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3