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1win Series Dota 2 Fall · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 27 games
48%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Ari · 25 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 23 games
65%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 17 games
71%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nine · 16 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 15 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Wisper · 15 games
80%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 15 games
73%

PARIVISION

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
DM · 16 games
63%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 12 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 11 games
82%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
9Class · 11 games
73%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 10 games
90%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 10 games
40%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
DM · 10 games
40%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
489 picks · 670 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
420 picks · 470 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
359 picks · 457 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
359 picks · 538 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
334 picks · 177 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
324 picks · 417 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
321 picks · 656 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
305 picks · 313 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:26
OG 45%PARIVISION 55%
The model gave 55% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 26:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingNine
56% · 172 games48% · 83 games
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
Queen of Pain
Ursa
Ursa23savage
51% · 142 games46% · 303 games
Dragon KnightCrystallis
Dragon Knight
Doom
DoomWisper
53% · 261 game48% · 343 games
PhoenixDM
Phoenix
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenxNova
55% · 311 games51% · 312 games
EnchantressDukalis
Enchantress
Snapfire
SnapfireAri
47% · 269 games44% · 114 games
Terrorblade9Class
Terrorblade
Game 2prediction correct21:42
OG 43%PARIVISION 57%
The model gave 57% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 29:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaver23savage
49% · 107 games56% · 201 game
AlchemistCrystallis
Alchemist
Timbersaw
TimbersawWisper
49% · 193 games51% · 109 games
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
Queen of Pain
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNine
54% · 100 games52% · 90 games
DawnbreakerDM
Dawnbreaker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
47% · 237 games44% · 302 games
Morphling9Class
Morphling
Tusk
TuskxNova
46% · 241 game53% · 176 games
PugnaDukalis
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 65%
Series resultPARIVISION 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2