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1win Series Dota 2 Fall · BO1
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 0:1
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Spiritwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Munkushi~ · 29 games
59%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 28 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 26 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 26 games
65%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
swedenstrong · 25 games
52%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
RESPECT · 24 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
RESPECT · 21 game
52%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 21 game
62%

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 39 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Larl · 29 games
62%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 26 games
81%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Miposhka · 22 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Malik · 21 game
76%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malik · 20 games
45%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Larl · 20 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Miposhka · 20 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
489 picks · 669 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
420 picks · 470 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
359 picks · 457 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
359 picks · 538 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
334 picks · 177 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
323 picks · 417 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
321 picks · 655 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
304 picks · 313 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total69% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:23
1w Team 40%Team Spirit 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 43:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckSquad1x
49% · 301 game48% · 365 games
MorphlingSatanic
Morphling
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
49% · 340 games51% · 230 games
MagnusMalik
Magnus
Mars
MarsCloud
47% · 338 games53% · 492 games
TinyLarl
Tiny
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeswedenstrong
52% · 158 games49% · 392 games
Shadow Demonrue
Shadow Demon
Batrider
BatriderRESPECT
49% · 382 games55% · 40 games
LichMiposhka
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 69%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1