CCT Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Palianytsialoss 0:2series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Palianytsia
Lunasignature
Crystallize · 18 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Moonlight · 17 games
Snapfire
QBFY · 17 games
Leshrac
QBFY · 16 games
Alchemistoften banned
kreker · 13 games
Dark Willow
QBFY · 13 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
fortniteMan · 12 games
Clockwerkoften banned
kreker · 12 games
Natus Vincere Junior
Lion
Riddys · 27 games
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 21 game
Rubick
Daze · 20 games
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 19 games
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 17 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Niku · 15 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Riddys · 15 games
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
489 picks · 669 bans
Clockwerk
420 picks · 469 bans
Luna
359 picks · 457 bans
Pangolier
359 picks · 539 bans
Dark Willow
333 picks · 177 bans
Dragon Knight
323 picks · 417 bans
Enchantress
321 picks · 658 bans
Batrider
304 picks · 312 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 63%
Hero pool strength59% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total83% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Palianytsia 17%Natus Vincere Junior 83%
The model gave 83% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior.
Game 2prediction correct25:43
Palianytsia 30%Natus Vincere Junior 70%
The model gave 70% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 33:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BroodmotherCrystallize
Beastmasterpma
PangolierMoonlight
Razorgotthejuice
Night StalkerfortniteMan
TinyNiku
Techiesdark
RubickDaze
Lionkreker
Shadow DemonRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 83%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2