?
arrow_backBack to match
1win Series Dota 2 Fall · BO1
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 1:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:0
OGloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Munkushi~ · 29 games
59%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 28 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 26 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 25 games
68%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
swedenstrong · 25 games
52%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
RESPECT · 24 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
RESPECT · 21 game
52%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 21 game
62%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 27 games
48%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Ari · 25 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 23 games
65%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 17 games
71%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nine · 16 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Wisper · 15 games
80%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 15 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bzm · 15 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
489 picks · 669 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
420 picks · 469 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
359 picks · 457 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
359 picks · 538 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
333 picks · 177 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
323 picks · 416 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
321 picks · 657 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
303 picks · 312 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% OG
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:11
1w Team 51%OG 49%
The model gave 51% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 40:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSquad1x
60% · 157 games51% · 123 games
Medusa23savage
Medusa
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCloud
44% · 150 games44% · 82 games
Queen of PainNine
Queen of Pain
Monkey King
Monkey KingMunkushi~
55% · 102 games53% · 74 games
DawnbreakerWisper
Dawnbreaker
Naga Siren
Naga SirenRESPECT
54% · 109 games51% · 321 game
BatriderAri
Batrider
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterswedenstrong
48% · 200 games41% · 118 games
PugnaxNova
Pugna
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 51%
Series result1w Team 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1