1win Series Dota 2 Fall · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 1:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Beastmastersignature
33 · 25 games
Tinysignature
Nisha · 25 games
Razorsignature
miCKe · 22 games
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 21 game
Clockwerkoften banned
iNSaNiA · 20 games
Morphlingsignature
miCKe · 19 games
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 18 games
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 18 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Underlordsignature
Ace · 23 games
Broodmothersignature
Ace · 20 games
Chensignature
Seleri · 19 games
Invokersignature
Quinn · 17 games
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
Muertasignature
tOfu · 15 games
Sniperoften banned
tOfu · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
484 picks · 661 bans
Clockwerk
419 picks · 467 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 528 bans
Luna
355 picks · 454 bans
Dark Willow
330 picks · 176 bans
Dragon Knight
320 picks · 402 bans
Enchantress
318 picks · 652 bans
Batrider
298 picks · 309 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 41%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head9 – 4
Model total63% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:19
Team Liquid 58%Gaimin Gladiators 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightmiCKe
Shadow FiendWatson
Storm SpiritNisha
DoomAce
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
PangolierQuinn
Shadow DemonBoxi
HoodwinktOfu
JakiroiNSaNiA
Ogre MagiSeleri
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 63%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1