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1win Series Dota 2 Fall · BO1
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 1:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Secretloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Underlord
Underlordsignature
Ace · 23 games
61%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Ace · 20 games
65%
Chen
Chensignature
Seleri · 19 games
68%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Quinn · 16 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
44%
Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 15 games
60%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
tOfu · 14 games
57%

Team Secret

Rubick
Rubick
Shishak · 9 games
44%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BOOM · 7 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Adzantick · 6 games
67%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Kyzko · 6 games
83%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 5 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Kyzko · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 661 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
419 picks · 465 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 527 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
354 picks · 453 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
330 picks · 176 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
320 picks · 400 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
318 picks · 651 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
298 picks · 309 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total91% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:27
Gaimin Gladiators 76%Team Secret 24%
The model gave 76% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 44:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautWatson
45% · 32 games48% · 168 games
Morphling423
Morphling
Invoker
InvokerQuinn
52% · 174 games48% · 171 game
PhoenixAinkrad
Phoenix
Magnus
MagnusAce
52% · 148 games47% · 247 games
Pangolierseimei
Pangolier
Tinker
TinkerSeleri
59% · 20 games58% · 51 game
Nyx AssassinKyzko
Nyx Assassin
Tusk
TusktOfu
45% · 295 games55% · 32 games
LichPuppey
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 91%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1