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CCT Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Palianytsialoss 1:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
One Movewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Palianytsia

Luna
Lunasignature
Crystallize · 18 games
61%
Leshrac
Leshrac
QBFY · 16 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Moonlight · 16 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfire
QBFY · 16 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
kreker · 13 games
23%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 13 games
38%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
fortniteMan · 12 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
kreker · 11 games
36%

One Move

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 21 game
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 20 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 17 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 15 games
27%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 15 games
60%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SSS · 15 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Rein · 14 games
79%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 661 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
419 picks · 463 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
354 picks · 451 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 527 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
329 picks · 176 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
320 picks · 398 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
318 picks · 650 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
298 picks · 309 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 64%
Hero pool strength56% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total77% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:48
Palianytsia 35%One Move 65%
The model gave 65% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 42:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaCrystallize
54% · 222 games53% · 108 games
Monkey KingWoE
Monkey King
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainPanda
47% · 139 games53% · 255 games
DoomSSS
Doom
Primal Beast
Primal BeastfortniteMan
51% · 378 games48% · 377 games
PangolierDifference
Pangolier
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinkreker
52% · 149 games44% · 311 games
EnchantressRein
Enchantress
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demondark
52% · 362 games49% · 199 games
Dark Willownot me
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed45:28
Palianytsia 34%One Move 66%
The model gave 66% on One Move — the game was taken by Palianytsia in 1:09:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendCrystallize
50% · 187 games46% · 288 games
MorphlingWoE
Morphling
Bristleback
BristlebackfortniteMan
57% · 138 games42% · 289 games
BeastmasterSSS
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierMoonlight
53% · 422 games48% · 224 games
InvokerDifference
Invoker
Clockwerk
Clockwerkdark
56% · 332 games46% · 304 games
GyrocopterRein
Gyrocopter
Lion
Lionkreker
55% · 223 games46% · 197 games
Muertanot me
Muerta
Game 3prediction correct29:42
Palianytsia 35%One Move 65%
The model gave 65% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 46:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackCrystallize
50% · 117 games47% · 315 games
Dragon KnightWoE
Dragon Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMoonlight
53% · 301 game50% · 192 games
AlchemistSSS
Alchemist
Sand King
Sand KingfortniteMan
54% · 184 games50% · 238 games
Ember SpiritDifference
Ember Spirit
Snapfire
Snapfirekreker
47% · 241 game46% · 174 games
Marcinot me
Marci
Phoenix
Phoenixdark
48% · 324 games56% · 248 games
Shadow DemonRein
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 77%
Series resultOne Move 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3