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European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lion
Riddys · 26 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 19 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 19 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 18 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 17 games
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Riddys · 14 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 13 games
46%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
pma · 13 games
62%

Nemiga Gaming

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
jesv · 16 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
jesv · 16 games
31%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shishak · 16 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
aik · 13 games
46%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 12 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
nicky`cool · 12 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Shishak · 12 games
42%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 12 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 660 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
418 picks · 463 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
354 picks · 450 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
353 picks · 525 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
328 picks · 176 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
320 picks · 396 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
317 picks · 649 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
297 picks · 309 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 25%
Hero pool strength56% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total83% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:10
Natus Vincere Junior 72%Nemiga Gaming 28%
The model gave 72% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 32:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
47% · 300 games53% · 86 games
Sand Kingряф^^
Sand King
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNiku
57% · 372 games54% · 290 games
PangolierMiyaoo
Pangolier
Viper
Viperpma
52% · 57 games47% · 225 games
HoodwinkShishak
Hoodwink
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiRiddys
49% · 62 games47% · 224 games
Enchantressantoha
Enchantress
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanDaze
46% · 34 games
Game 2prediction correct50:17
Natus Vincere Junior 67%Nemiga Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 35:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassingotthejuice
48% · 145 games43% · 196 games
Morphlingряф^^
Morphling
Beastmaster
Beastmasterpma
52% · 197 games58% · 233 games
Centaur WarrunnerMiyaoo
Centaur Warrunner
Sand King
Sand KingNiku
53% · 135 games46% · 155 games
SnapfireShishak
Snapfire
Lion
LionDaze
48% · 169 games55% · 85 games
Elder Titanantoha
Elder Titan
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionRiddys
38% · 23 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 83%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2