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European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 0:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hydrawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 11 games
36%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 9 games
33%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Focus · 9 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
SsaSpartan · 8 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 7 games
43%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
ififall · 6 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wuiter · 6 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
ififall · 6 games
17%

Hydra

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ani-san · 7 games
57%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 7 games
43%
Underlord
Underlord
Actor · 7 games
29%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Actor · 5 games
40%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 5 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
ani-san · 5 games
20%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Ethereal · 4 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
ani-san · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
480 picks · 658 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
417 picks · 461 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
353 picks · 446 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 525 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
328 picks · 174 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
319 picks · 395 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
317 picks · 646 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
296 picks · 307 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Level UP 61%Hydra 39%
The model gave 61% on Level UP — the game was taken by Hydra.
Game 2prediction missed
Level UP 61%Hydra 39%
The model gave 61% on Level UP — the game was taken by Hydra.
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 61%
Series resultHydra 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2