CCT Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
DMSwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 7 games
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 6 games
Dark Willow
jAMES · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
MikSa` · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 4 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 4 games
Lion
Thiolicor · 4 games
DMS
Batrideroften banned
Daxak · 19 games
Tuskoften banned
Hduo · 14 games
Alchemistoften banned
Shigetsu · 13 games
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 13 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Daxak · 12 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Hduo · 11 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
prblms · 10 games
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
479 picks · 658 bans
Clockwerk
417 picks · 461 bans
Luna
353 picks · 445 bans
Pangolier
351 picks · 524 bans
Dark Willow
327 picks · 173 bans
Dragon Knight
319 picks · 394 bans
Enchantress
317 picks · 646 bans
Batrider
294 picks · 307 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:36
Zero Tenacity 51%DMS 49%
The model gave 51% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by DMS in 35:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageMikSa`
MedusaShigetsu
MagnusDaaD-
Pangoliermellojul
Sand KingStojkov
EnigmaNefrit
PugnaLeBronDota
Batriderprblms
Dark WillowjAMES
Ogre MagiHduo
Game 2prediction missed8:32
Zero Tenacity 52%DMS 48%
The model gave 52% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by DMS in 20:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaDaaD-
Shadow FiendShigetsu
InvokerStojkov
BristlebackNefrit
MagnusMikSa`
Tinymellojul
AlchemistLeBronDota
Shadow Demonprblms
BatriderjAMES
TuskHduo
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 51%
Series resultDMS 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2