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European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 21 game
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 18 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 16 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 15 games
27%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 15 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Rein · 14 games
79%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SSS · 14 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
not me · 14 games
79%

Nemiga Gaming

Rubick
Rubick
jesv · 16 games
31%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shishak · 16 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
jesv · 15 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
aik · 13 games
46%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 12 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
nicky`cool · 12 games
33%
Underlord
Underlord
MikSa` · 12 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Shishak · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
479 picks · 655 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
416 picks · 458 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
350 picks · 440 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 522 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
320 picks · 173 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
320 picks · 645 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
317 picks · 392 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
292 picks · 304 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 28%
Hero pool strength53% One Move
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total72% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:26
One Move 63%Nemiga Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 46:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightWoE
51% · 163 games50% · 178 games
Sand Kingряф^^
Sand King
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDifference
62% · 118 games46% · 123 games
SlardarMiyaoo
Slardar
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSSS
38% · 30 games50% · 253 games
Dark Willowqueezy
Dark Willow
Hoodwink
Hoodwinknot me
48% · 151 game54% · 36 games
Venomancerantoha
Venomancer
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterRein
45% · 128 games
Game 2prediction missed24:40
One Move 62%Nemiga Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on One Move — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 44:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaWoE
48% · 292 games46% · 299 games
Puckряф^^
Puck
Kunkka
KunkkaSSS
47% · 211 games53% · 451 game
PangolierMiyaoo
Pangolier
Invoker
InvokerDifference
42% · 144 games53% · 160 games
Leshracqueezy
Leshrac
Pugna
PugnaRein
49% · 115 games60% · 179 games
Naga Sirenantoha
Naga Siren
Batrider
Batridernot me
50% · 327 games
Game 3prediction correct37:18
One Move 62%Nemiga Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 36:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingWoE
48% · 340 games51% · 452 games
Pangolierряф^^
Pangolier
Doom
DoomSSS
48% · 247 games48% · 153 games
TerrorbladeMiyaoo
Terrorblade
Invoker
InvokerDifference
50% · 175 games53% · 395 games
Batriderqueezy
Batrider
Enchantress
EnchantressRein
51% · 308 games47% · 315 games
Phoenixantoha
Phoenix
Dark Willow
Dark Willownot me
53% · 245 games
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 72%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3