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IESF World Esports Championship 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Филиппиныloss 1:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Грецияwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Филиппины

No games played over 6 months.

Греция

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 1 game
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Focus · 1 game
0%
Lich
Lich
SsaSpartan · 1 game
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ThuG · 1 game
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
dEsire · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
477 picks · 652 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
412 picks · 455 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 517 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
348 picks · 435 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
320 picks · 644 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
319 picks · 171 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
317 picks · 389 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
292 picks · 302 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% Филиппины
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Филиппины
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:42
Филиппины 57%Греция 43%
The model gave 57% on Филиппины — the game was taken by Греция in 43:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
Snipercml
46% · 87 games65% · 57 games
BristlebackFocus
Bristleback
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTino-
48% · 195 games47% · 31 game
Queen of PainThuG
Queen of Pain
Rubick
RubickShanks
46% · 262 games58% · 102 games
EnigmaSkyLark
Enigma
47% · 145 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
48% · 209 games
Crystal MaidenSsaSpartan
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct44:16
Филиппины 57%Греция 43%
The model gave 57% on Филиппины — the game was taken by Филиппины in 40:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerTino-
47% · 185 games54% · 92 games
LunaFocus
Luna
Death Prophet
Death Prophetcml
49% · 95 games49% · 67 games
PuckThuG
Puck
Marci
MarciShanks
47% · 154 games53% · 103 games
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
Centaur Warrunner
50% · 105 games
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
55% · 67 games
Shadow DemonSsaSpartan
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction missed27:35
Филиппины 59%Греция 41%
The model gave 59% on Филиппины — the game was taken by Греция in 50:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Enchantress
Enchantresscml
57% · 246 games43% · 90 games
Shadow FiendFocus
Shadow Fiend
Invoker
InvokerTino-
50% · 126 games45% · 13 games
LycanSkyLark
Lycan
Leshrac
LeshracShanks
49% · 77 games43% · 89 games
Ember SpiritThuG
Ember Spirit
53% · 70 games
MuertadEsire
Muerta
52% · 187 games
ClockwerkSsaSpartan
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteФилиппины · 66%
Series resultГреция 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3