Монголия vs Беларусь — prediction IWEC 2024 · Dota 2

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IESF World Esports Championship 2024 · BO3

result vs prediction

Монголияwin 2:0

series probability

64%36%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Беларусьloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Монголия

No games played over 6 months.

Беларусь

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tusk

477 picks · 652 bans

51%

Clockwerk

412 picks · 455 bans

52%

Pangolier

350 picks · 517 bans

49%

Luna

348 picks · 435 bans

55%

Enchantress

320 picks · 644 bans

53%

Dark Willow

319 picks · 171 bans

52%

Dragon Knight

317 picks · 389 bans

50%

Batrider

292 picks · 302 bans

50%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)72% vs 53%

Hero pool strength50% Монголия

Head-to-head1 – 0

Model total64% Монголия

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct31:7

Монголия 60%Беларусь 40%

The model gave 60% on Монголия — the game was taken by Монголия in 30:53.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo